Does government endorse this piloting project?
Yes this piloting project implemented by Project 90 by 2030 is being run through a bilateral agreement between the British High Commission and the Department of Environmental Affairs.
Is this tool appropriate for a developing country or just part of a donor-driven (or ‘Northern’) agenda?
No, this tool is produced locally by the Energy Research Centre (ERC) at the University of Cape Town. The ERC has extensive experience of modelling the South African Energy System, as well as policies and Measures for Sustainable development, and maintains a comprehensive model of the energy system, based on the TIMES model, known as SATIM.
How does the calculator fit into the bigger picture of national climate change response planning process?
The 2050 Calculator is an educational tool designed to help stakeholders get to grips with the context of national climate change mitigation opportunities and challenges and to encourage an inclusive and long term perspective to inform engagement with formal policy elaboration processes.
To what extent is the reference case consistent with the existing national plans and policy?
The reference case selection of energy options does not conform to existing policy, but sketches a pathway without implementation of the National Climate Change Response White Paper and recent policy pronouncements (e.g. the proposed procurement of 9.6 GW of nuclear power is an option at level 2 of the supply lever for nuclear). It is a projection that incorporates the development goals of the National Development Plan, but not the interventions recommended to achieve these goals – rather it explores the options available to achieve the imperative of a “lower carbon economy”. The key drivers, the GDP growth projections, have been revised for recent years in light of the latest trends (as reported upon by the World Bank), as economic growth targets are pushed into the future.
What sources of data were used to populate the model?
– References are included in the Excel spreadsheets, with many listed in a dedicated Sheet. Data is drawn from official government statistics or sources (including inputs used in Integrated Resource Planning (IRP) for electricity supply) wherever possible.
– Note: As the Pathway Calculator works with projections, generated from a starting date of 2006 (the year for which the most comprehensive energy data has been officially published, as in the Energy Statistics Digest of 2009), the values projected for the immediate past (with a smooth progression) may vary from recently reported figures, but are broadly in line with actual developments.
Can I comment on the assumptions? How will you collect feedback and analyse the pathways?
One of our goals in making the work open-source is to make it easier to spot errors, propose solutions and seek views on the levels 1 to 4 for each lever. If you would like to feedback to us, we have a shared inbox which is monitored by team members: whharker@gmail.com Should you wish to provide a comment or ask a question about a particular exemplar, please do so by selecting the applicable exemplar and post your comment via the ‘reply’ section, provided at the bottom of the page.
What is included in the reference case?
– The reference case (sometimes referred to as the baseline, or business-as-usual) seeks to represent a national development pathway in the absence of concerted climate change mitigation as mandated in the National Climate Change Response Policy adopted in October 2011. It takes the energy system from 2006 as a departure point and uses projections of economic and population growth supplied by Treasury as the key drivers.
– The reference case takes into consideration the existing energy related development plans from the 2010 Integrated Resource Plan, which includes, for example, the electricity installed capacity as mandated by the renewable energy independent power producers programme (REIPPP). Details of the reference case are provided in the Level 1 descriptions in the 1-Pager for all levers.
What is the significance of the green band (Peak, Plateau and Decline benchmark)?
The green bar superimposed on the emissions graphs represents the range within which the national trajectory of emissions into the future should be contained, according to the National Climate Change Response White Paper (2011). These numbers were set on the basis of available information in about 2009, at which time SA did not have a full accounting of recent emissions, which were in reality higher than the estimates used; hence the numbers for the beginning of the range (2010) are lower than emissions were subsequently found to be during finalisation of the National GHG Inventory 2000 – 2010. How this range should now be interpreted is the subject of an on-going policy elaboration and consultative process. The electricity emissions graph the range remains that for total national emissions, of which electricity emissions currently constitute roughly 50%.
How does this tool benefit businesses?
– Helps them to understand the challenges and the context of climate change response policies and the scale of the decarbonisation challenges.
– It encourages long-term thinking in the GHG space.
What is the source of the assumptions applied in the model?
The assumptions are those used in the SATIM model run by ERC and based on national planning assumptions, including GDP growth projections from Treasury, and national energy planning processes such as Integrated Resource Planning for the electricity supply industry.
Is the Calculator consistent with the IRP2010, or the IRP Update Report?
The reference case hypothetically pre-dates the IRP, as reflected in several of the ‘1-pager’ accounts of all the levers. For some levers the plans of the IRP2010 are contained in lever setting 2, with some IRP Update Report recommendations incorporated in level 3.
Is fracking represented in the model?
The Calculator has a lever with a single setting that enables domestic gas supply, for which fracking is generally considered the most likely prospect, though the assumptions applied are fairly generic and the impact of this options is to lower the cost of gas, without affecting the share of gas in the energy mix, which is determined by other levers; this lever also reduces the amount of gas that is imported.
Which Greenhouse Gasses are covered by the tool ?
6 gases as covered by the National GHG inventory which follows the conventions of the UNFCCC i.e. carbon dioxide (CO2), methane(CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), and the “F-gasses”, i.e.: hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), and sulphur hexafluoride (SF6).
How does this tool relate to the MPA and/or (LTMS) of South Africa?
The Calculator seeks to consider the full technical potential for transition to a low carbon economy, while the MPA provides detailed analysis, including an assessment of socio-economic impacts, of a clearly defined set of available mitigation actions
How up to date is the data used in the calculator?
The data used is the most up to date data used by government including the 2010 energy balance available from DEO and the National GHG inventory (2000 – 2010).
What about the emissions from ‘traditional’ burning of biomass?
Traditional biomass use is phased out, at a rate determined by the lever settings selected in the Households section of demand side interventions.
Why does energy supply ‘look like’, not match the trends in energy demand?
Primary Energy Supply accounts for all input to the energy system, including energy that is lost in transformation; thus a dip in primary energy supply may result from a strong reduction is such losses and does not mean a decrease in energy availability at end use. (Note: Under the Electricity tab the supply graph depicts the only the output of electricity generation).
Does the tool look at the impacts of mitigation initiatives on Gross Domestic Product (GDP)?
– No, GDP growth is projected and is not treated as a variable in the model; and
– There is no modelling of potential feedback effects on GDP growth.
– Note: The GDP lever does not change the rate of GDP growth, but rather the distribution of such across different sectors of the economy. (The projected rates of growth of the various sectors, as well as the aggregate growth rate, can be directly manipulated in the Excel version).
Does the calculator deal with emissions from cement manufacture?
Such emissions are included in the total emissions projections, but no direct mitigation interventions in this sector are modelled, inter alia due to uncertainties regarding alternatives.
Is the excess energy available for exports included in costs?
Yes, costs are provided for the entire energy system.
Is it possible to see what proportion of costs are associated with exports?Not directly, but the proportion of electricity generation available from export (exceeding national demand) can be seen in the online Flow diagram, with pop-up figures (in PetaJoules), from which one can extrapolate a proportion of costs associated with that carrier that are not accountable to national energy use.
What finance cost assumptions do you use and how can you change them?
See excel sheet for finance and cost assumptions
To what extent can the assumptions (e.g. Population and GDP growth) be changed in the calculator?
Assumptions can’t be changed in the on-line tool, but can be changed in the excel version. please see excel user guide for.
What discount rate has been used in the tool?
3% as recommended by The Treasury.
Why does the livestock lever only cover dairy cows?
All agriculture emissions are included in the projection of national emissions, but the only mitigation option modelled is restraining the growth of the dairy herd, since emissions from dairy cows are higher than those from beef cattle. A reduction of the share of meet in the diet of affluent people could reduce emissions, but this is could be more than off-set by increased meat (particularly red meat) in the diet of poor people as poverty and inequality are reduced.
What do emissions ‘below zero’ signify / why do land use emissions appear in the negative?
In SA the inward flux of carbon (removal of CO2 from the atmosphere) through photosynthesis is greater than the outward flux through ecosystem respiration – about 6% greater ‘sequestration’ than emissions from agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU); thus net annual emissions (as shown in the graph, above zero) are total emissions minus removals by ‘sinks’.
Why is there a dip in Primary Energy Supply when substantial amounts of RE are introduced to the system?
Primary Energy Supply counts all energy going into the system, before losses in transformation of coal to electricity and liquid fuels, as shown in the Flow diagram; currently coal-fired generation achieves an average efficiency of around 32% and this improves to almost 37% in 2050 in the reference case. When there is a relatively rapid shift away from coal within the calculator, there is a decrease in total primary energy supply required as demand is increasingly met by options from which there are no losses (i.e. total system efficiency gains are greater than demand growth), but once the losses have been removed from the system, the primary supply has to increase again in line with on-going growth in demand.
How is this tool relevant to the COP?
Over the coming months, countries from around the world are coming together to work toward a global deal. We need an increased amount of decision makers to be informed on the scale of the problem and the benefits of the solutions. The Calculator aims to ultimately help galvanise the international community into action, to try and help prevent the worst impacts of climate change on the world’s most vulnerable people. The tool is made accessible to all, for example by being open source, freely available online.
Are fugitive emissions from i.e. gas and coal supply included into the calculations?
Conservative assumptions are applied regarding fugitive emissions, which are factored into projections consistent with IPCC recommendations / UNFCCC accounting practices.
Does the modelling provide for an adequate generation reserve margin and is it possible to see the extent of peaking plant installed?
Yes – a 15% reserve margin is achieved within the short term and maintained for the rest of the period to 2050; the extent of deployment of peaking plant can be found in the Excel version.
Are electricity transmission losses reflected?
Yes, there is provision for transmission losses in the modelling, at a generic or aggregated level.
What grid emissions factor is used in the online tool?
Appropriate emissions factors are applied for specific technologies, so there is no single grid emissions factor, as this will be a product of lever selections on the supply side.
Does the calculator perform any kind of optimization?
No, seeking an optimal combination of mitigation actions is the role of the user. There are some assumptions determining selections within the electricity supply mix, such as which technologies or sources (as in the reference case) are displaced when others are selected, to maintain alignment with demand, though with some supply levers at the highest level the supply is allowed to exceed demand, making power available for export.
Base Load? How do we know if there’s enough base-load plant?
The model is designed to provide adequate power to meet the projected demand, including the constant portion or base load demand; availability factors and resource variability are taken into account and there are provisions for storage and peaking plant capacity.
South Africa 2050 Pathways Calculator 